Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners was appointed by the Gloucester City Council, Cheltenham Borough Council and Tewkesbury Borough Council to undertake an independent assessment of housing requirements for the Joint Core Strategy (JCS) area.
The key purpose of this study is to provide further evidence to support the emerging JCS by:
Verifying the approach that has been undertaken to date in respect of the Local Projections and Household estimates and the translation of these figures to dwelling requirements.
Reviewing the representations that have been made in respect of housing requirement matters and providing commentary and advice on the ways in which these might impact upon the assessment of market and affordable housing requirements.
Demonstrating the housing requirements for the overall JCS area, at an individual local authority area level, and for the Cheltenham and Gloucester Wider Policy Area.
Providing a clear understanding of the impact of the National Planning Policy Framework upon housing requirements for the JCS area.
To support the earlier work above, Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research (CCHPR) supported by Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners (NLP) were asked to review the housing numbers and the alignment with economic forecasts and at the same time incorporate the latest census data.
Below are listed the report from CCHPR and NLP’s addendum to their original report.
Implications of new population and household projections
This preliminary report from November 2013 discusses the available evidence on how different the new projections might be from the existing ones to provide a basis for the JCS authorities to decide whether to press ahead on the current timetable or to await the new projections.
Update - March 2014
To further support the work undertaken in assessing the housing requirements of the JCS area, the Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research (CCHPR) were asked to review the data.
The conclusion of this work advises that the partial return to trend scenario would continue to represent a reasonable central case for establishing the level of objectively assessed need, but that there are two credible alternative options. The JCS authorities consider that, as a result of this latest advice, the most credible option focuses on a partial return to trend to enable the 25 to 34 year old age group to form households; this would imply an objectively assessed need of 30,500 dwellings.
Update - June 2014
The Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research were asked to advise the JCS authorities on the implications of the Office for National Statistics population projections published on 29 May 2014. Letter and presentation to JCS Members Steering Group can be downloaded below.
Update - November 2014
This supplementary report from Nathaniel Litchfield and Partners (NLP) considers the 2012-based Sub National Population Projections (SNPP) for the JCS area, addendum published August 2014.
A summary of the Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research (CCHPR) advice to the JCS, published November 2014.